In the previous article, I promised to write more in English, if I could get more viewers from the US. And It seems me that this blog has been gaining those viewers, so, I will write an article following "Sell, when people are losing in the market because it’s proven to be so." the article previous discussing whether "Prospect Theory" is a possible theory and I proved it is, showing the result of a computer analysis for trading simulations on Nikkei 225 data (1990-2018).
And today, I'll be showing how each entry of trade looks like in the candle bar chart.
The blue circle on the chart is the point where you entry for sell. The price got stopped just a little under the MA(the red line). The hypothesis that I though of is based on factors 1~3
1: In the upper shadow of the last candle bar, there is a possibility that some people jumped on the price when it showed a surge, but they ended up holding a position with a lower price. As "Prospect Theory" suggests, they can't admit that they are losing, so they will wait until they have lost more than they expect.
2: The upper shadow of the last candle bar also tells us a surge against buying power and this is not like the one I showed in 1, which implies that people having sold in the upper shadow of the last candle might wait longer for a bigger profit, because they might be nothing like people illustrated in "Prospect Theory".
3: On top of these, there is less possibility that people jump onto buying than selling because the price once pushing itself over the MA now got pushed back to the original side.
The chart below shows 3 days later from the entry.
The price moved as I anticipated, but no one can be sure of any hypothesis just to have seen a single case.
However, this isn't the case that I picked out randomly from data. It was the computer program that chose this point as a point of sell. And the sum of all the gain and loss from similar trades that were simulated by the program I coded was positive. And profit line of this simulation has been steadily right-angled over 28 years.(to check about this, touch on here)
To sum up, this Hypothesis has been proven to work!!
This is all for this time. If I could get more viewers from US, in the next article I would share with my viewers the program that works on google spread sheet, and with that you can experience all the simulations I write here.
Please post URL of this blog anywhere you think of, to share this with everybody.
にほんブログ村
And today, I'll be showing how each entry of trade looks like in the candle bar chart.
The blue circle on the chart is the point where you entry for sell. The price got stopped just a little under the MA(the red line). The hypothesis that I though of is based on factors 1~3
1: In the upper shadow of the last candle bar, there is a possibility that some people jumped on the price when it showed a surge, but they ended up holding a position with a lower price. As "Prospect Theory" suggests, they can't admit that they are losing, so they will wait until they have lost more than they expect.
2: The upper shadow of the last candle bar also tells us a surge against buying power and this is not like the one I showed in 1, which implies that people having sold in the upper shadow of the last candle might wait longer for a bigger profit, because they might be nothing like people illustrated in "Prospect Theory".
3: On top of these, there is less possibility that people jump onto buying than selling because the price once pushing itself over the MA now got pushed back to the original side.
The chart below shows 3 days later from the entry.
The price moved as I anticipated, but no one can be sure of any hypothesis just to have seen a single case.
However, this isn't the case that I picked out randomly from data. It was the computer program that chose this point as a point of sell. And the sum of all the gain and loss from similar trades that were simulated by the program I coded was positive. And profit line of this simulation has been steadily right-angled over 28 years.(to check about this, touch on here)
To sum up, this Hypothesis has been proven to work!!
This is all for this time. If I could get more viewers from US, in the next article I would share with my viewers the program that works on google spread sheet, and with that you can experience all the simulations I write here.
Please post URL of this blog anywhere you think of, to share this with everybody.
And also please click on the button below to push me up to upper rank in a blog competition I join.
にほんブログ村
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿